[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On July 17, nickel prices fell below 120,000 yuan/mt Ni. The news that Trump planned to fire Powell led to a triple decline in US stocks, bonds, and currency.

SMM Nickel News on July 17:

Macro News:

(1) As news of Trump discussing "firing Powell" at a closed-door meeting with congressional Republicans was leaked to the media during the overnight New York session, the market reaction was almost uniformly negative, with US stocks, the US dollar, and long-term US Treasury bond prices all falling rapidly. This was soon clarified by Trump himself, and it ultimately turned out to be a false alarm.

(2) On July 16, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council presided over a State Council executive meeting to study the implementation of key policy measures to strengthen the domestic big cycle. The meeting pointed out that strengthening the domestic big cycle is a strategic move to promote steady and long-term economic development. It is necessary to identify key focal points, deeply implement special actions to boost consumption, systematically eliminate unreasonable restrictions that constrain residents' consumption, optimize the trade-in policy for consumer goods, meet residents' consumption demands by increasing diversified supply, expand investment in new quality productive forces, emerging service industries, and other fields, fully release the potential of domestic demand, and continuously enhance the endogenous driving force of the domestic big cycle.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 119,300-121,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 120,450 yuan/mt, up 1,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,000-2,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from domestic mainstream brands is -100-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2508 contract) opened lower and moved lower during the night session, falling below 120,000 yuan/mt again. It rose slightly during the daytime session, and as of the midday session, the SHFE nickel price was quoted at 119,990 yuan/mt, down 0.51%.

Macro factors dominate the direction, and there is a risk of the price center moving lower. If tariffs are implemented or the US Fed delays interest rate cuts, SHFE nickel prices may fall further. In the short term, nickel prices may continue to be in the doldrums, with a core reference range of 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt.